Great Powers, and Surprisingly Strong "Lesser" Powers

by David Bernell and Ambassador Thomas Graham (Retired)

A Lesson in Humility

The historian Louis Perez, who has written extensively about Cuba and the United States, recounted a tale about the arrogance of great powers and the challengers that upset their grand plans. The story goes something like this.

In the days after Cuban independence, a man named Liborio was cutting sugar cane in the fields. One day right there in the field, who appeared but God. “Buenas dias Liborio,” said God,” I have come to see how my Cubans are doing.” Liborio stood there, his clothes soaked with sweat, his hands cracked and bleeding, his feet bare and filthy, and considered what to say. “First of all, Señor,” he said, “we are no longer subjects of the King of Spain. We are free.”

“I can see that,” said God, looking at Liborio from head to foot. “The difference is astounding.”

“But I wonder sometimes,” Liborio continued, “why life is still so hard.” God smiled at him. “My son, nothing on this earth can be perfect, or nobody would want to go to heaven. Sugar is sweet, but you have to labor to take it from the ground. The ocean is wide and bountiful, but it has sudden storms and dangerous currents to pull you under and drown you. This Cuba is so beautiful, the pearl of all my creations, so I had to make the pests, the mosquitos, the sea urchin, the thorn of the marabu, all so life here would be less than Paradise. Nothing can be perfect in this world.”

Liborio pondered this, trying to fathom the wisdom of God’s ways. “But nothing can mar the beauty of freedom,” he said. “Surely freedom is perfect?”

God smiled again and said, “For that, I created the United States.”

Perez himself added to this instructive story, providing his own insights, saying that indeed,

“God created the United States, envisioned as one of the great nations of the world, endowed with power hitherto unimaginable and wealth previously unknown. But God understood too the perils of such power and wealth and the ease with which confidence could be transformed to arrogance. God wanted to teach humility, most of all to underscore that the exercise of power and wealth, even on such an unprecedented scale, was not without limits.”

“And to this end God created Cuba…”

It can also be said that Ukraine and Iran are providing a lesson to the world once again that such wisdom should not be forgotten. In fact, it is not only Russia and the United States, but also China that should pay attention too.

This is because international politics are increasingly being shaped by the three strongest global powers – Russia, The United States, and China – and the efforts each is taking to try and bend another country to its will. It may very well be the case that the future of global politics is to be shaped by Ukraine, Iran, and Taiwan.

The outcomes, fallout, and unintended consequences that emerge from the actions that these great powers are undertaking against “lesser” powers are likely to be what shapes global politics for years to come. And those outcomes are far from certain, as smaller countries thought to be without any power or leverage refuse to succumb to those thought to be more powerful. Contrary to what the leaders of these large powers – Putin, Trump, and Xi – may believe about their own invincibility and their certainty regarding victory, Ukraine and Iran have already shown, very clearly and forcefully, that they are not helpless or weak. They have proven their mettle, sending a message to the larger powers that any expectation they would simply roll over is entirely misguided.

Or as Louis Perez might say, they are reminding the world that God created them too.

The Path of Greatest Resistance in Ukraine

The world is already witnessing what prolonged conflict with a great power looks like in Ukraine, and how Ukrainian resistance to Putin’s gamble (seeking to retake Ukraine to “Make Russia Great Again”) is reshaping European and global politics. Whether or not the US remains closely tied in the NATO alliance for the long term, Russia’s invasion prompted an economic sanctions regime that broke new ground in trying to punish a wrongdoer, along with a reshuffling of global energy markets as Western countries have been trying to divorce themselves from Russian energy.

While the response of NATO has been strong and supportive, and US support was strong when President Biden was in office, it is the Ukrainians themselves who have been at the center of this story, and who have continually surprised the world. First was their defiance, embodied by President Volodymyr Zelensky’s message to his country – “We are here!” – and the fight displayed by the Ukrainian military and the people of the country. Member of parliament Inna Sovsun seemed to capture the mood perfectly in her social media post a few days into the war: “My dad is signing up for a territorial defence squad. My boyfriend is with the Army. I’m working as hard as I can to give information to the world about what is happening here. But if need be – I’m ready to fight.” The photo showed her sitting on the floor with her computer, and her rifle propped up against the wall.

From that early defiance has come sustained resistance over four years, successful counterattacks in 2022 to retake a significant amount of territory that had been occupied by Russia, military success with sea-based drones in the Black Sea that removed the Russian navy as a threat, and then later taking the fight directly into Russia with attacks deep inside Russia against military assets and energy infrastructure. Even the reduction of American aid under Trump has not harmed Ukraine as much as expected, as the country has become the most battle-tested military in the world, and a developer of sophisticated and effective military hardware to combat Russian missiles and drones, while halting the Russian army from making further territorial gains. Ukraine is now a supplier of military equipment and know-how to other countries.

In short, Ukraine is the gold standard for the world in demonstrating a country that protects its democracy and independence and emerges stronger for it. The people of Ukraine voted to declare their independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, ousted a corrupt leader trying to steal an election in 2004 during the Orange Revolution, stood up for their future and removed a corrupt leader again in 2013-14 with the Euromaidan uprising, and are now resisting Russia for over four years.

In fact, Ukraine’s successes on the battlefield are getting people to look again at the evolution of the war. In contrast to only a year ago, when news reports and analyses of the war suggested that time was on Russia’s side and Ukraine was showing signs of being unable to sustain its efforts, the assessments now increasingly speak of Ukraine’s opportunities for success. As analyst Brynn Tannehill wrote in a series of articles – “Let’s Redo the Math on Ukraine,” and “Ukraine’s Second Miracle Year,” – Ukraine has been able to “expand its military production infrastructure to the point that they have significantly more capacity than money to build munitions. This is why Ukraine is offering to export weapons during the middle of the war—to raise money for their own needs.” To that end, “Ukraine’s goal is to produce 7 million short-range drones this year, and 10 million thereafter,” as this is their most effective weapon. “With drone swarms growing increasingly dense, omnipresent, and lethal, the result is almost always the annihilation of Russian troops before they ever contact Ukrainian lines.” Russia is suffering over 1,000 casualties per day, with two-thirds of those being soldiers killed in action, and this means that Russian recruiting cannot handle the losses incurred in the fighting. “Strategically, Ukraine has a theory of victory that looks increasingly plausible, while Russia’s is crumbling. There is a path to Ukraine achieving overwhelming drone dominance at all levels and inflicting the casualties required to cause a Russian collapse.”

These developments have larger, geopolitical implications beyond the battlefields in Ukraine. Moreover, considering the US abdication of its historic global leadership role and the alienation of America’s friends and allies under Donald Trump, along with Trump’s questionable support for democratic governance (both at home and abroad), Ukraine’s stature is further enhanced. It is now being argued that President Volodymyr Zelensky stands as the leader of the free world. The world cannot do much better than having “Winston Franklin” Zelensky in such a role.

Meanwhile, as Putin’s Russia continues to prosecute its war, the country has suffered more than one million casualties, including over 350,000 soldiers killed (a number surpassed only in the two world wars). It faces a declining economy, a drop in energy revenues, high inflation, severe labor shortages, strong sanctions from the West with minimal connection to these advanced economies and the benefits they offer, and a growing number of attacks on its own territory. The government’s response to its failures consists largely of increasing repression against its own population, and cutting off information sources and internet connections so that people in Russia cannot get news from abroad, while its global reputation at one of the world’s great powers is dealt one blow after another.

Putin and the world are reminded every day that it is Ukraine which has brought all this pain and humiliation to Russia.

And What About the United States and China?

Iran is another country that may be reshaping the international system. Its has shown its ability to endure the US and Israeli war, while using its home field advantage and leverage in the Strait of Hormuz to wreak havoc on the global economy. It is demonstrating to a bigger power the limits of traditional elements of firepower, the strength of asymmetrical warfare with a mix of old and new technologies, the vulnerability of global supply chains in energy and other goods essential to the global economy, and a challenge to the dollar as the currency of global energy markets as Iran enforces its new yuan-denominated oil sales, as well as its new “toll road” in the strait. Iran was given a chance to exercise its power and demonstrate it to the world, while highlighting the poor judgement of President Trump and the ways in which American military power can be found lacking in ability. And it has succeeded in meeting its objectives (at least for now), while preventing the United States from achieving its objectives.

With respect to China, the nature of its challenge to Taiwan remains to be seen, but it has been taking shape for years. Whether or not an outright invasion occurs, China continues to expand its presence and exert its power throughout the East China Sea and South China Sea, challenging many of its neighbors, while directing continual harassment and military threats toward Taiwan. The evolution of this conflict, which may include a war whose outcome would be far from certain, will affect everything from computer chips (and all the products they are used in) to international trade to the global balance of power.

We will address more thoroughly the cases of Iran and Taiwan in subsequent articles. Suffice it to say at this time that Russia and the United States are seeing the implications of failure to win what each thought would be an easy and quick war. China still has a decision to make, and it will have significant impacts. After all, an emboldened US, Russia or China is going to be a very different actor in global politics than a chastened US, Russia or China.