The Dragon and the Eagle (Part II)

by. David Bernell and Ambassador Thomas Graham (Retired)

The American government under Donald Trump is continuing on its course of inflicting harm upon the United States, both at home and abroad. A quick review of the headlines over just the past week finds that the Republican-led Congress is addressing a bill that would limit the number of Democratic voters, under the guise of election integrity. ICE maintains its mistreatment of people throughout the country, in spite of the announcement that the scale of operations is being diminished in Minneapolis. And the president has been engaged in another fight with Canada, threatening more tariffs over the opening of a new bridge linking the American city of Detroit and the Canadian city of Windsor. The Olympics have provided a welcome alternative to the usual news feeds.

The headlines change daily as the president changes his focus and media outlets follow, and it is in this context that we are further addressing a significant and long-term challenge, one involving the growing economic, military, and political power of China, and what this may mean for the United States and the rest of the world. As we stated in our earlier article on this topic, the United States can expect to face significant and ongoing challenges from China in the coming years and decades, but the country seems ill-prepared to meet these challenges.

Previously, we addressed China’s economic strength, and how this is also serving as a basis for a change in the global economy and its governance, as well as the expansion of its political and military power. In further considering these multifaceted changes and their implications, one thing that is clear is that the world is changing fast. While critics (like us) of the Trump administration lament the president’s attacks on allies and his efforts to further dismantle the post-World War II international order, that order was changing with or without Trump. The American president, however, is making things worse by not only accelerating the change, but by eliminating positive attributes of that order which should be preserved – such as political and economic cooperation among democratic states, and strengthening global agreements and institutions on health and the environment. He is also enhancing and legitimizing actions that will serve the United States and others poorly, such as engaging in military attacks against neighbors, and threatening the use of force on friends and foes alike to achieve whatever political goals might be served by such posturing.

In this political context, whereby the United States government is freely abdicating its position of power and global leadership, it is necessary to consider the growing military power of China – along with its stated intention of reincorporating Taiwan into the country, by force if necessary. This is of vital importance for its potential to further remake the global order in a way that could diminish political freedom and expand political violence.

The Military Capabilities of China and The Balance of Power

The military power that China is developing is significant. Their armed forces, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), are formidable, as the country has been able to deploy its industrial power and marshal its political will to massively increase defense spending for many years to build a first-rate military. This is true with respect to both the quantity and the quality of its armaments.

One of the ways this is clearly made visible is in the realm of naval power. China has built a sizable navy in a very short time, and it is now estimated to have 395 ships, far more than the 296 the United States has. The U.S. Navy is also expected to have fewer vessels in the coming decade, while China will continue to expand to a projected 435 ships by 2030. The trajectory is expected to continue over time, as China’s shipbuilding capacity – both military and commercial – is more than 200 times that of the United States. Moreover, “China has integrated commercial and military production at many of its shipyards, giving the PLA navy access to infrastructure, investment, and intellectual property acquired from commercial contracts.” As one retired U.S. naval intelligence officer put it, “We are not going to be building enough ships in the next years to replace those vessels being retired from service…We could be looking at the U.S. Navy being in a state of permanent numerical inferiority to the Chinese.”

Beyond ships, China has made other remarkable progress in its military modernization over the last few decades. Most of its 2,100 fighter jets have advanced 4^th and 5^th generation capabilities. It has the world’s largest stockpile of ground-based conventional missiles, including intermediate range missiles that can extend up to 4,000 miles, and an arsenal of 600 hypersonic missiles that can travel at five times the speed of sound. A new generation of attack drones employs both stealth technology and AI-assisted autonomy. It has also developed significant capabilities involving military satellites, deploying hundreds of them that can collect intelligence, enable communications, provide navigation, and direct targeting. The cyber capacity to support this large, advanced military force engaged in modern warfare is also a part of what China has achieved.

China is not only rapidly expanding its conventional weapons. It is also increasing and modernizing its nuclear weapons. After decades of maintaining a minimal deterrent force of about 200 weapons, the country has been both modernizing and expanding its nuclear arsenal. The U.S. government estimates that China’s stockpile of nuclear warheads reached 600 last year, and is expected to reach 1,000 by 2030 and 1,500 only five years after that. As a Washington Post article reported, “China is rapidly overhauling a network of secret facilities used to manufacture warhead components as it expands its nuclear stockpile faster than any other country.” Moreover, “The levels of changes we’re seeing are probably more extensive than we’ve ever seen.”

What all of this means is that China has changed the balance of military power toward its favor in East Asia, including at sea in what is called the “first island chain.” This area extends from Japan to Taiwan and the Philippines, and down to the island of Borneo, encompassing both the East China Sea and the South China Sea. The Chinese government has laid claim to small islands in both of these seas, such the Spratley islands, the Paracel islands, and the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, and it argues that these areas comprise its territory and territorial waters. The “nine-dash line,” extending hundreds of miles south of China’s coastline, represents probably the best known of these claims. As far back as 1992, the country passed a law defining its sovereignty over these waters and islands. Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam and other countries dispute these claims, which are inconsistent with international law. Nonetheless, China has extended its presence in the region, even building military facilities on many of these disputed and uninhabited islands. This is seen as highly provocative by neighbors with rival claims, but China’s actions seek to demonstrate to others that its power is commensurate with its claims and objectives, and that it can back up those claims.

Not Just Capabilities, but Intentions Too?

While China’s military expansion clearly speaks to its growing capabilities, other countries have concluded that China’s military power reflects not only a defensive mindset, but an intent to use this power. China appears to its neighbors and to the United States that it is ready for conflict, preparing for it, and maybe even ready to actively provoke it.

If China is to be recognized as an undisputed regional hegemon, then it will have to clearly demonstrate that it has established a position superior to the United States in the Western Pacific. In short, the road to dominance goes through the United States. This view is buttressed by the fact that China’s larger foreign policy also indicates its hostility to American power and China’s ability to meet and match American power. This message is evident in Chinese President Xi Jinping’s statements over the past few years. He has said that “Western countries led by the U.S. have implemented containment, encirclement and suppression of China, bringing severe unprecedented challenges to our country’s development.” But he has also proudly stated that, “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation is unstoppable.”

The dividing lines in global politics had been hardening prior to Trump’s return to office. The Russian invasion of Ukraine had brought the West and NATO closer together, while at the same time the relationship among Russia, China, North Korea and Iran moved closer. China’s closest friend seems to be Russia, and it embraces North Korea as well. Their leaders, Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un, met with Xi in Beijing, attending China’s huge military parage in September 2025 celebrating the 80^th anniversary of the end of World War II. This was the first time the leaders of all three of these countries were together since 1959, and on display at the parade were hundreds of high-tech tanks, missiles, and anti-drone systems. As a report from the BBC noted, “It was sheer political theater…The Chinese leader has stolen the limelight, and he’s using it to show his power and influence over an eastern-led alliance – a defiant group determined to push back against a US-led world order.”

Since Donald Trump’s return to the White House, global politics and relationships have become increasingly scrambled. The U.S. has turned away from many of its historic foreign policies and has instead instigated conflict with NATO allies and trade wars with just about everyone, prompting Canadian Prime Minister to state only a few weeks ago that what is happening is not merely a transition in global politics, but a rupture. The government of China certainly knows that it can benefit from America’s self-inflicted wounds. In the midst of Trump’s ongoing trade war with China over the past year, Xi warned the American president that “bullying or hegemonism only leads to self-isolation.” Moreover, in assessing the damage that President Trump is doing to American alliances, prestige, power and influence, Xi said that, “Should America forfeit the world’s respect, it will discover what every fallen empire learned too late: The world moves on. Always.” The implication, though unstated, was obvious: the world will move on to China for global leadership.

This seems to already be happening. The Prime Minister of Canada signed a new trade agreement with China shortly after his statement about Trump’s rupturing of the global political order.

The Most Dangerous Place

When it comes to the aims of China, the place where things seem most dangerous by far is in the Taiwan Strait. The breakaway province of Taiwan has maintained its de facto (but not formal) independence and sovereignty since 1949 due to American backing, along with the idea that both mainland China and Taiwan together constitute a single country. U.S. policy has been crucial in providing stability and keeping the peace. As long as Taiwan did not declare its independence (which would cause it to lose American support) and China didn’t seek to invade and take the island by force (which would also trigger American opposition), the peaceful status quo could be maintained with “one China, two systems.”

Now the balance of power in the region is changing. China’s military has become far more capable in what it can potentially accomplish, while its government has developed greater ambitions with regard to Taiwan, seeking to reunify it with China, by force if necessary. These developments threaten the status quo of the past seven decades.

For these reasons, American assurances and threats toward both China and Taiwan no longer carry the same weight they once did. Not only does the military balance of power no longer favor the United States as it once did, but the political support of the United States to Taiwan’s defense is questionable, considering the unpredictability of U.S. foreign policy under the Trump administration. The outcome of any possible military confrontation is far less certain than it might have been in the past.

Examining these considerations will be the topic of our next article.